Too Cold to Cope, Too Hot to Work: Temperature Shocks and Intimate Partner Violence in Bolivia

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events poses significant socioeconomic challenges, particularly for vulnerable populations in developing countries. Among these challenges, the potential impact of climate shocks on gender-based violence remains underexplored. This paper investigates the long-term effects of temperature shocks on intimate partner violence (IPV) by aligning individual-level data from the 2008 Bolivian Demographic and Health Survey with high-resolution daily climate data. Using a semi-parametric specification based on temperature bins, I find no significant national-level effects of temperature on IPV incidence. However, stratifying by altitude reveals substantial heterogeneity: in low-altitude areas, ten additional days of extreme cold (< 21 ℃) or extreme heat (≥ 33 ℃) significantly increase IPV incidence by 3.6 and 2.2 percentage points, respectively, while moderate cold temperatures ([21, 23) ℃) reduce IPV incidence. Mechanism analysis suggests that cold shocks intensify the risk of IPV by increasing male alcohol consumption and income instability, particularly in rural and indigenous communities. In the case of hot shocks, the main channels are reduced women’s employment and increased home exposure and conflict likelihood in urban, non-indigenous households. Overall, these findings demonstrate that the effects of temperature shocks are highly contextual and heterogeneous, underscoring the need for climate adaptation policies that are sensitive to the socioeconomic and gendered dimensions of climate change vulnerability. The key findings contribute to the broader goal of reducing violence against women, as defined by the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 5.

Working Paper