Too Cold to Cope, Too Hot to Work: Temperature Shocks and Intimate Partner Violence in Bolivia

Abstract. The increasing frequency of extreme weather events poses significant socioeconomic challenges, particularly for vulnerable populations in developing countries. This paper investigates the impact of temperature shocks on intimate partner violence (IPV) using individual-level data from the 2008 Bolivian Demographic and Health Survey matched with high-resolution daily climate data. Employing a temperature binning approach, I find substantial heterogeneous effects by altitude: in low-altitude areas, ten additional days of extreme cold (< 21 ℃) or extreme heat (≥ 33 ℃) significantly increase IPV incidence by 3.6 and 2.2 percentage points, respectively, while moderate cold temperatures ([21, 23) ℃) reduce IPV incidence. Moreover, cold shocks increase IPV through heightened male alcohol consumption and income instability, particularly in rural and indigenous communities, while hot shocks reduce women’s employment in urban, non-indigenous households. Overall, the results demonstrate that the effects of temperature shocks are highly contextual and heterogeneous, underscoring the need for climate adaptation policies that are sensitive to socioeconomic status and gender so that they can contribute to the broader goal of reducing violence against women.